NetSuite · Demand Planning · SAT-002 forecast

Firm demand (signed SO)

$147.5M

SAT-001 · 100% confidence

High-probability (> 75%)

$148M

SAT-002 option exercise + 1 other

Medium-probability (40-75%)

$140M

SAT-003 + 2 RFP responses

Low-probability (< 40%)

$52M

3 prospecting deals

24-mo expected revenue

$248M

probability-weighted

Long-lead at-risk

$5.4M

PROP/PAY for SAT-002 · forecast-driven

📊 Forecast horizon · 24 months · revenue by probability tier

Period	Firm (SO signed)	High (>75%)	Medium (40-75%)	Low (<40%)	Total period	Probability mix
2026 H2	5,400,000	2,800,000	0	0	8,200,000	66% 34%
2027 Q1	14,200,000	7,200,000	2,400,000	0	23,800,000	60% 30% 10%
2027 Q2	25,400,000	14,800,000	5,600,000	0	45,800,000	55% 32% 13%
2027 Q3	18,000,000	22,400,000	12,800,000	3,200,000	56,400,000	32% 40% 22% 6%
2027 Q4	15,000,000	28,400,000	22,000,000	8,800,000	74,200,000	20% 38% 30% 12%
2028 H1	8,000,000	36,400,000	42,200,000	22,800,000	109,400,000	7% 33% 39% 21%
2028 H2 (forecast horizon edge)	0	36,000,000	55,000,000	17,200,000	108,200,000	33% 51% 16%
Total · 24-mo horizon	86,000,000	148,000,000	140,000,000	52,000,000	426,000,000	Avg 35% / 35% / 23% / 7%
Probability-weighted expected revenue: $86M (firm) + $111M (high·75%) + $77M (med·55%) + $13M (low·25%) = $287M over 24 months

🔗 How Demand Planning drives MRP · the upstream-of-MRP role

Step	Source	Action	Drives MRP behavior
1	Salesforce pipeline (probabilistic)	Pull all opportunities · stage · close date · amount · probability	Raw demand input
2	Demand Planner (P. Reyes)	Apply probability tiers · adjust per opportunity (gut-feel + signals)	Refines confidence · escalates risks
3	Statistical baseline	Layer on historical patterns (3-yr history · seasonality · attach rate)	Catches pipeline gaps · validates pipeline
4	Item-level explosion	Forecast SO ↦ explode to 93-line BOM × confidence%	Per-item demand forecast (qty · need date)
5	Long-lead trigger logic	For items with lead time > 26 wk: release if confidence > 60%	Pre-MRP · drives early procurement
6	MRP run	Consumes demand plan · netting against on-hand · existing POs	MRP makes the actual buy/make recommendation
7	Forecast vs Actual	Track plan accuracy monthly · adjust statistical model	Continuous improvement · feedback loop

⚠ Long-lead items at-risk · forecast-driven release decisions pending

3 items · $5.4M committed · awaiting confidence threshold

Item	Vendor	Lead time	Forecast qty (24mo)	Driving SO confidence	Release threshold	Recommendation	Action
PROP-THRUSTER-1N	Aerojet Rocketdyne	40 wk	4 (SAT-001) + 4 (SAT-002 fcst) = 8 units	SAT-002: 80% (option exercised)	≥ 60% for 26-40wk lead	RELEASE NOW	→ Add to MRP queue
PAY-TELESCOPE-ASSY	L3Harris	32 wk	1 (SAT-001) + 1 (SAT-002 fcst) = 2 units	SAT-002: 80%	≥ 60% for 26-40wk lead	RELEASE NOW	→ Add to MRP queue
CDH-OBC-MAIN-A	CAES (Cobham)	30 wk	2 (SAT-001) + 2 (SAT-002) + 2 (SAT-003 fcst) = 6	SAT-003: 55%	≥ 60% for 26-40wk lead	HOLD · 5% short of threshold	Recheck monthly

→ Sales pipeline detail → Item-level forecast → See in MRP

Active opportunities

$340M total pipeline

In closed-won stage

SAT-001 · $147.5M (firm)

Negotiation / verbal

$148M · high-probability

Proposal stage

$140M · 50-65% range

Prospecting / qual

$52M · early stage

📊 Salesforce Pipeline · 8 active opportunities · sorted by probability

→ Open Salesforce

SF Opp	Customer	Mission	SF Stage	Amount	Probability	Close date	Demand tier
0064P00002Cx9YA	USSF Andromeda	SDA · LEO	Closed-Won	$147.5M	100%	2024-12-15 (signed)	FIRM (SO signed)
0064P00002Cz1QR	USSF Andromeda	SDA · LEO (option)	Verbal Award	$148M	80%	2026-09-30	HIGH
0064P00002Dq8XK	NRO program	SIGINT · MEO	Negotiation	$220M	65%	2027-03-31	MEDIUM
0064P00002Dt2WA	Allied Govt (UK)	SDA · LEO (export · TAA)	Proposal	$95M	55%	2027-06-30	MEDIUM
0064P00002Dy4LM	NASA Earth Sci	EO · LEO	Proposal	$55M	40%	2027-09-30	MEDIUM
0064P00002Dz1NB	USAF SBIRS-extension	Comms · MEO	Qualification	$35M	30%	2027-12-31	LOW
0064P00002Eq3PC	Commercial Sat-as-Service	EO · LEO (small)	Prospecting	$12M	25%	2028-03-31	LOW
0064P00002Er5KD	Foreign Mil (FMS)	SDA (FMS approval pending)	Prospecting	$5M (study)	15%	2028-06-30	LOW
Pipeline total				$617.5M	—	—	$340M (excl. SAT-001 firm)

🎯 Probability tier mapping · how confidence is assigned

SF Stage	NS demand probability	MRP impact	Long-lead release rule
Closed-Won (signed SO)	100% · FIRM	Drives full MRP demand	Always release
Verbal award · contract draft	80% · HIGH	Forecast demand	Release if lead > 26 wk
Negotiation	65% · MEDIUM	Forecast demand	Release if lead > 36 wk & not at-risk
Proposal · RFP response	40-55% · MEDIUM	Forecast (advisory)	Hold · monitor
Qualification	25-30% · LOW	Capacity planning only	Don't release
Prospecting	10-25% · LOW	Capacity reserve only	Don't release

Items in plan

all of SAT-002 BOM

Items at-risk (long-lead)

≥ 24wk lead time

Items pooled across satellites

common to SAT-001/002/003

Forecast accuracy 12-mo

94%

vs SAT-001 actuals

📦 Item-level demand forecast · top long-lead items · 24-mo horizon

Item	Subsystem	Lead time	SAT-001 (firm)	SAT-002 (80%)	SAT-003 (55%)	Total fcst (raw)	Total fcst (prob-wgt)	Recommendation
PROP-THRUSTER-1N	PROP	40 wk	4	4	4	12 units	10.4 units	RELEASE 8 (firm + high)
PAY-TELESCOPE-ASSY	PAY	32 wk	1	1	1	3 units	2.6 units	RELEASE 2 (firm + high)
CDH-OBC-MAIN-A	CDH	30 wk	2	2	2	6 units	5.2 units	HOLD SAT-003 · monitor
COMM-RADIO-XBAND-A	COMM	28 wk	1	1	1	3 units	2.6 units	HOLD SAT-003
EPS-BATTERY-LIION-100W	EPS	26 wk	1	1	1	3 units	2.6 units	HOLD SAT-003
ADCS-RW-MEDIUM-A	ADCS	26 wk	4	4	4	12 units	10.4 units	RELEASE 8 (firm + high)
ADCS-STAR-TRACKER-A	ADCS	22 wk	2	2	2	6 units	5.2 units	RELEASE 4 (firm + high)
EPS-PCDU-250W	EPS	20 wk	1	1	1	3 units	2.6 units	FIRM only · short lead OK
ADCS-IMU-A	ADCS	18 wk	1	1	1	3 units	2.6 units	FIRM only · short lead OK
+ 84 items with shorter lead times · MRP-driven on SO sign · no forecast-release needed

🔄 Pooled demand benefit · across 3 forecast satellites

62 of 93 items are common across SAT-001 / SAT-002 / SAT-003 (e.g., reaction wheels · star trackers · OBC). Pooled demand allows volume-pricing negotiations with vendors (target 5-10% volume discount on RFQ above 6 units) and reduces inventory carrying cost vs single-satellite procurement.

Strategy	Cost impact	Risk
Single-satellite procure (status quo)	Baseline	Low risk · just-in-time per build
Pool firm + high-confidence (SAT-001 + SAT-002)	-3-5% volume discount	Low · 80% confidence floor
Pool firm + high + medium (3 sats)	-7-10% volume discount	Med · risk SAT-003 doesn't sign · holding cost on excess
Speculative pool (4+ sats forecast)	-12-15% volume discount	High · would require CFO sign-off

Cleanroom capacity

1.4×

2 bays · 80% utilisation

Test bay (TVAC)

0.95×

at limit · external backup needed

Mfg headcount

5 / 7 needed

Hire 2 by Q4 2026

Engineering capacity

25.5 / 30 FTE

Hire 5 SW + ME

🏭 Capacity utilisation · 24-month forecast

Resource	Capacity (units/yr)	2026-H2 fcst	2027 fcst	2028 fcst	Status	Decision
Cleanroom Bay A (ISO 8)	1 satellite/yr	0.5 (SAT-001)	1.0 (SAT-001 → SAT-002)	1.5 (SAT-002 → SAT-003)	⚠ overflow	Bay B coming online Q3-2026
Cleanroom Bay B (in build)	1 satellite/yr	0.0	0.5	1.0	✓ planned	Q3-2026 commission
TVAC chamber (internal)	3 sats/yr	0	1 (SAT-001)	2 (SAT-002 + SAT-003)	⚠ Wyle backup needed	Wyle reservation Q1-2027 hold
Vibration table	4 sats/yr	0	1	2	✓ adequate	Internal · no constraint
Mfg headcount (Tech III · ITAR)	1.0 sat/FTE/yr	5 FTE × 0.5 = 2.5	5 FTE × 1.0 = 5.0	7 FTE × 1.5 = 10.5	⚠ Hire by Q4-2026	Recruit + ITAR-clear 2 · 6mo lead
Test eng team	2 sats/yr	0	1	2	✓ adequate	Internal
SW / FSW (per-mission custom)	1 sat/team/yr	0.5	1.0	2.0	⚠ Hire by Q3-2026	Recruit 3 SW eng · 3mo lead

🛠 Capacity decisions driven by demand plan

Decision	By when	Owner	Driver from demand plan	Cost
Commission Cleanroom Bay B	Q3-2026	T. Pierce (CTO)	SAT-002 + SAT-003 forecast (80% / 55%)	$1.2M (one-time)
Hire 2 Tech III + ITAR clear	Q4-2026	HR + T. Pierce	SAT-002 + SAT-003 build	$340K/yr
Hire 3 SW Eng (FSW)	Q3-2026	HR	SAT-002 + SAT-003 missions	$420K/yr
Wyle TVAC reservation	Q4-2026	E. Garcia (AI&T)	2-sat overflow Q1-2028	$120K (premium)
Multi-source thrusters (NG ETP-200)	Q4-2026	P. Reyes	R-008 mitigation + pool demand	$40K (qual cost)

Plan accuracy 12-mo (MAPE)

94%

target ≥ 90%

Plan accuracy 24-mo (MAPE)

82%

degrades with horizon

Bias (12-mo)

+2.4%

slight over-forecast

Worst error (item)

22%

ADCS-MAGNETOMETER · overestimated

📈 Forecast vs Actual · SAT-001 historical (12-mo backward look)

Period	Forecast (made T-12mo)	Actual	Error	Error %	Note
2025-04 (PDR)	$8.0M	$8.0M	$0	0%	Point-in-time milestone · perfect match
2025-09 (CDR)	$12.0M	$12.5M	+$500K	+4.2%	Customer added 1 deliverable · scope mod absorbed
2025-12 (LL Procure start)	$1.8M	$1.6M	-$200K	-11.1%	Vendor discount captured · cost-favourable
2026-01	$1.4M	$1.2M	-$200K	-14.3%	Same · vendor discount
2026-02	$1.4M	$1.4M	$0	0%	On-target
2026-03	$1.5M	$1.7M	+$200K	+13.3%	Pull-in of next-period AC
2026-04 (current)	$2.0M	$1.78M	-$220K	-11.0%	Slight under-pace · within window
12-mo total	$28.1M	$28.18M	+$80K	+0.3%	Excellent accuracy · 12-mo horizon

📊 Accuracy breakdown · by tier

Confidence tier	Plan accuracy 12-mo	Plan accuracy 24-mo	Suggested action
Firm (signed SO)	99% (essentially 100%)	97%	Continue current method
High (>75%)	92%	78%	Hold current rules · monitor
Medium (40-75%)	76%	62%	Tighten threshold to 50% min for release
Low (<40%)	52%	38%	Capacity planning only · don't drive procurement

🧮 Demand Planning · statistical model configuration

Base method

Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing (level + trend + seasonality)

Smoothing constants

α=0.30 (level) · β=0.18 (trend) · γ=0.10 (seasonality)

Seasonality period

12 months (annual procurement cycle)

Outlier handling

Winsorize at 1st/99th percentile

Pipeline weighting

Probability-weighted (per SF stage)

Historical horizon

3 years (back to 2023-04)

Forecast horizon

24 months forward

Refresh schedule

Daily (02:00 UTC) · monthly full re-fit

📊 Method choice rationale · per item-class

Item class	Method	Why
Long-lead structural items (PROP · PAY · STR)	Pipeline-only (probabilistic)	Few historical data points · custom per mission · no smoothable pattern
Subsystem electronics (ADCS · CDH · COMM)	Pipeline + Holt-Winters	Recurring patterns across satellites · attach rates ~constant
Common consumables (fasteners · MLI tape)	Holt-Winters only	Steady consumption · historical pattern is best signal
One-off custom items	Manual planner override	No pattern · driven by SF SO directly

🎯 Confidence interval calculation

Per-item probability-weighted demand:

  expected_qty = Σ (sat_qty × close_probability × (close_date ≤ horizon))

For confidence interval at 80%:

  upper = expected + 1.28 × σ_residual
  lower = expected - 1.28 × σ_residual

  where σ_residual = std dev of (forecast - actual) over last 12 months

Long-lead release decision:

  IF expected ≥ release_threshold[lead_class]
  AND lower bound (80% CI) > 0
  THEN release for early procurement
  ELSE hold + recheck monthly

  release_threshold_map:
    lead ≤ 16 wk → 100% (firm only)
    lead 16-26 wk → 75% (high confidence)
    lead 26-40 wk → 60% (high + some medium)
    lead > 40 wk → 50% (medium · with CFO sign-off)

⚠ Model limitations · what this isn't

Doesn't predict opportunity creation (relies on SF pipeline · no leading-indicator analysis)
Doesn't account for win-rate variability per customer / mission type
Doesn't model competitive dynamics (other vendors winning the same RFP)
Probability tiers come from SF stage · which is sales-rep judgment (subject to bias)
Holt-Winters assumes seasonality which may not hold for low-volume custom builds
Long-lead release decisions still require human (Procurement Lead) approval · model is advisory

🔧 Demand Plan · system info

Internal ID

91230

Plan name

Annual rolling 24-mo plan

Subsidiary

S-01 · Turion Space Inc

Currency

USD

Created

2025-01-04 by P. Reyes

Last refresh

2026-05-04 02:00 UTC (auto)

Source script

customscript_demand_plan_run

Audit retention

7 years (DFARS 252.215-7008)

📜 Scheduled scripts

Script	Trigger	Last run	Status
customscript_sf_pipeline_pull	Daily 01:30 UTC	2026-05-04 01:30	Active
customscript_demand_plan_run	Daily 02:00 UTC	2026-05-04 02:00	Active
customscript_long_lead_decision	Daily 02:30 UTC	2026-05-04 02:30	Active
customscript_capacity_check	Weekly Monday 03:00 UTC	2026-05-04 03:00	Active
customscript_forecast_actuals_recon	Monthly · period close	2026-04-30	Active
customscript_holt_winters_refit	Monthly · period close	2026-04-30	Active

📜 Audit log · last 5 plan runs

Timestamp	Event	Outcome
2026-05-04 02:00:08	Daily plan run	$248M weighted forecast · 3 long-lead items flagged for release
2026-05-03 02:00:14	Daily plan run	$246M weighted · same 3 items flagged
2026-04-30 22:14:00	Monthly Holt-Winters refit	α / β / γ refit · new MAPE 94% (was 92%)
2026-04-30 22:00:00	Monthly forecast vs actual reconciliation	+$80K bias · within tolerance
2026-04-29 02:00:00	Daily plan run	+1 opportunity (Foreign Mil FMS · 15%) added

Demand Planning · 24-month rolling forecast